A trough is currently digging down through parts of the northern United States right now, with a jetstreak expected to nose its way into Wisconsin by Tuesday afternoon. Given the lift from the upper- and mid-level troughs, as well as a surface cold front extending off a low pressure system in northern Canada, some thunderstorms are expected to fire up in the Upper Midwest. Some of the storms in Wisconsin are expected to be severe, with some large hail and damaging winds possible in the strongest convection.
|Severe weather forecast from the SPC, issued Monday morning.|
Severe weather across parts of Texas are dependent on whether or not a line of storms develops on Monday night and manage to linger into parts of Tuesday.
As most of the instability moves out of the country, most of the United States will experience relatively boring conditions during the last half of the week. Some general thunderstorms could occur across parts of the southern Gulf states along the seabreezes, as well as some rain/thunderstorms across parts of the eastern half of the country. The SPC says that none of these storms are expected to be severe.
|Rainfall forecast from the HPC, issued Monday morning.|
Temperatures are expected to be seasonal throughout the week, with mid to upper 80s for highs throughout the southern and central US, and cooler temperatures in the northeast. The desert southwest can expect a major heatwave over the next few days, with excessive heat watches and warnings in effect for parts of southern California and Arizona. Temperatures could reach or exceed 110°F in some areas before the week is out.
|NAM MOS max temperature output for Thursday, from the 06z run.|