Active Weather Expected Sunday 4-29 through Tuesday 5-1

4/29/2012 forecast, heavy rain, severe weather No Comments

A slow moving low pressure system parked over northern Oklahoma right now will begin to lift off towards the northeast, bringing with it a chance of severe weather and heavy rain today and Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has pegged an area across the Southern Plains from the foot of the Rockies eastward to Missouri for a slight risk of severe weather during the afternoon and evening on Sunday, with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds.

SPC's severe weather outlook for Sunday April 29, 2012.

As the low shifts northeastward during the day on Monday, the extent of the severe weather threat will shift as well. A slight risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist in the Ohio Valley during the day on Monday as some storms (possibly severe) fire up in the warm sector of the low out ahead of a cold front. Another area of severe weather is expected over parts of the Southern Plains on Monday, again with large hail and damaging winds the predominate threats.

SPC's severe weather outlook for Monday April 30 2012

On Tuesday, a cold front will sweep down across the Northern and Central Plains bringing yet another chance (probably the best chance) for severe weather as storms fire up along and ahead of the cold front during the afternoon and evening hours. In their probabilities, the SPC has issued a 30% risk for significant severe weather across a large section of the Mississippi Valley, meaning that significant damaging winds (in excess of 75 MPH) or very large hail (greater than 2.00" in diameter) are possible when the storms develop. They say that there shouldn't be too much of a tornado threat in this event, but as with most severe weather, the threat is not non-existent.

In addition to the severe weather threat, a major rain event is currently playing out over parts of Southern Florida thanks to a stalled trough in the area, and the rain will continue straight through Tuesday. Some areas have already seen 2-4" of rain from this system, and up to 8"+ of rain are possible by the time the clouds break on Tuesday night/Wednesday. The below image is the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from the HPC, showing the rainfall amounts forecast to fall over the next 5 days. In addition to the bullseye over southern Florida, there are two other areas expecting a good slug of rain over the next few days. The midsection of the country is expecting a good few inches of rain as the daily rounds of storms come through, and the Pacific Northwest could see a few inches of precipitation as a low pressure system makes its way ashore during the day on Monday.

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