TS Alberto: Rainbands Impacting GA, Turn To Northeast Imminent

5/20/2012 forecast, tropics No Comments

As of the 11AM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Alberto was still drifting along towards the southwest with 45 MPH winds. A Tropical Storm Watch is still in effect for parts of the South Carolina coast, but the odds of these areas experiencing tropical storm conditions are lowering with each tick of the storm away from SC.

As seen above, Alberto is a photogenic storm on satellite due to the lack of convection around the center of the system. All of the storm activity within Alberto is located on the western side of the storm, with rainbands (with less than tropical storm force winds) impacting coastal counties of Georgia at this time. The NHC expects Alberto to just barely hang in there as a Tropical Storm over the next couple of days, before turning extra-tropical and dissipating towards the middle of the week.

Alberto is currently moving towards the southwest, but an approaching midlevel trough will force the storm to turn right back around and start moving northeast. A low pressure system is currently sitting about 50 miles east of Ocean City, MD right now, which is effectively serving to block Tropical Storm Alberto from racing northeastward out to sea. This low is forecast to move inland over the next few days, which will open up a large ridge over the Atlantic and allow Alberto to move progressively faster out to sea.

12z NAM 51 hour 500 millibar height/wind/vorticity forecast.

As the storm moves northeast on Tuesday, the center of the storm will come fairly close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Provided the storm is able to hold itself together, there's a real possibility of these areas going under a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning by tomorrow evening as the storm approaches. It won't be a memorable storm by any means in terms of damage, surge, or flooding, but still worthy of attention if you live along the Carolina coast.

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