Let's start with the most likely to form, shall we?
Area 1 -- Medium (50%) Chance of Development
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Both the GFDL and the CMC (Canadian Model) has 96L forming into a tropical storm and moving into Louisiana. The HWRF model has the system develop into a tropical storm and follow Alex almost to a T, making landfall in or near Brownsville, TX. The GFS and NGP models don't have the system form at all. It's a crap shoot right now, but the satellite is pretty good looking. The NHC reports that some ships and buoys around the center of 96L reported tropical storm force winds, but they can't classify it as such right now because the system doesn't have a low-level circulation yet.
Area 4 -- Low (10%) Chance of Development