Hurricane season is 13 days old and we're looking at our first serious candidate for tropical development. "Invest 92L," as it's been dubbed by the National Hurricane Center, is getting its act together about 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic Ocean. I've had several people ask whether or not it's normal to have something develop so early in the season, and I thought we'd look into that a little bit more...
(Invest 92L from NHC update this afternoon)
Hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through November 30, but hurricanes aren't bound by when we say they should occur. In April of 2003, Tropical Storm Ana formed in the middle of the Atlantic ocean and drifted out to sea after reaching a peak strength of 60 miles per hour. According to the NHC, the earliest hurricane to form was on March 31, 1954. If this disturbance in the Atlantic turns into a storm, it certainly won't be the earliest.
However, it is unusual (but not unheard of) to have storms form this far out so early in the year. According to climatology records, storms usually don't start forming this far east in the Atlantic until August and September. Researchers expect this storm season to be "one hell of a year," so if this indeed forms, it could be just one storm of a long season.
Here is a graphic showing the tracks of all June storms. The dot is where the system in question, Invest 92L, is located. Image by Weather456 on Weather Underground.
From NOAA, the most likely areas in the Atlantic to see tropical cyclone development, by month. Dark blue is likely, green is more likely, and areas shaded in orange are areas most likely to see tropical development in a particular month.
= Tornado Warning
= Severe T'storm Warning
= Flash Flood Warning
